Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Idaho @ Utah IDHO @ UTAH

IDAHO

IDAHOIDHO

0-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

1-0  |  Home

66
Key Game
Tyler Kinsman
KEY GAME

Tyler Kinsman

#89 | Place kicker
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Tyler Kinsman None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IDAHO
3%
📊
UTAH
97%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (IDHO)
IDAHO 3% Book Odds: +3500
UTAH 100% Book Odds: -20000
Book Implied: 2.80% / 99.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.5
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 60.5 58%
Under 60.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.5
IDAHO
Book Spread
+37.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Idaho)
IdahoIDHO (+37.5) 0 UtahUTAH (-37.5)
Idaho Vandals (+37.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Idaho Cover

99.4%

Utah Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IDHO +35.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)

IDHO By 1-6 points

0.4%

IDHO By 7-13 points

0.1%

UTAH By 1-6 points

1.3%

UTAH By 7-13 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
14
IDAHO
Book Implied: 11.50
49.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 49
Simulated Score
14
IDAHO
Book Implied: 11.50
38
UTAH
Book Implied: 49
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah Win
99% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Idaho (-37.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +35.5
C
Sim Idaho (+36.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +24.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o60.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.5
C
Sim u60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 IDHO @ UTAH 14 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +88.2% more
Utah: 259.1 vs Idaho: 137.7
Total Yards (L5) +57.6% more
Utah: 476.0 vs Idaho: 302.0
First Downs (L5) +36.6% more
Utah: 23.8 vs Idaho: 17.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs Idaho: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 14.0 14
UTAH Score 49.5 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 17.4 33.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 259.1 / 137.7 364.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 476.0 / 302.0 633.0 / 225.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3500 / -20000 → +3500 / -20000
6%TICKETS94%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +33.5 / -33.5 → +37.5 / -37.5 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 60.5 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
--
UTAH Advantage
11-2-0 (84.6%)
Margin: 22.4 ATS +/-: +8.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
--
UTAH Advantage
9-4-0 (69.2%)
Margin: 22.4 ATS +/-: +8.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
--
UTAH
9-4-0
O: 69.2% / U: 30.8% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
IDHO
UTAH
IDHO
ML
100% 1-0
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
100% 2-0
ATS
0% 0-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-1
50% 1-1
TTL
100% 1-0
50% 1-1
0% 0-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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