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FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

0-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:45 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

1-0  |  Home

66
Key Game
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
@
Liam Padron
KEY GAME

Liam Padron

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Reed Chandley None-None
Liam Padron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
9%
📊
FLORIDA
91%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (FAU)
FAU 6% Book Odds: +1636
FLORIDA 97% Book Odds: -3436
Book Implied: 5.80% / 97.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 59.5 52%
Under 59.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
+26.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Florida Atlantic)
FAUFAU (+26.5) 0 FloridaFLA (-26.5)
Florida Atlantic Owls (+26.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

96.3%

Florida Cover

3.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FAU +25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

FAU By 1-6 points

2.2%

FAU By 7-13 points

0.9%

FLA By 1-6 points

5.3%

FLA By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 16.50
42.5
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 43
Simulated Score
34
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 16.50
24
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 43
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida Win
91% Win Prob
B
Sim FAU Loss
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI FAU (+26.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +25.0
C
Sim FAU (+26.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o59.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
D
Sim u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 FAU @ FLA 21 - 66
Sep 4, 2021 FAU @ FLA 14 - 35
Nov 21, 2015 FAU @ FLA 14 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +77.5% more
Florida: 174.3 vs Florida Atlantic: 98.2
Turnovers (L5) +64.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 3.2 vs Florida: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +25.5% more
Florida Atlantic: 26.0 vs Florida: 19.4
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Florida Atlantic: 459.5 vs Florida: 345.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 17.5 21
FLA Score 42.5 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 26.0 30.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 174.3 / 98.2 281.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 345.9 / 459.5 624.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 3.2 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1459 / -4008 → +1636 / -3436
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +26.5 / -26.5 → +26.5 / -26.5
56%TICKETS44%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 59.5 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
FLA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
FAU
FLA
FAU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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