Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ USC FRES @ USC

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

2-0  |  Home

39
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
7%
📊
USC
93%
FRESNO ST 9% Book Odds: +1000
USC 95% Book Odds: -1786
Book Implied: 9.10% / 94.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 66%
Under 51.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
USC
Book Spread
-22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (USC)
Fresno StFRES (+22.5) 0 USCUSC (-22.5)
USC Trojans (-22.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

2.3%

USC Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

FRES By 1-6 points

1.4%

FRES By 7-13 points

0.5%

USC By 1-6 points

3.8%

USC By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 14.50
43
USC
Book Implied: 37
Simulated Score
14
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 14.50
38
USC
Book Implied: 37
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim USC Win
99% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI USC (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim USC (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 FRES @ USC 0 - 39
Sep 17, 2022 FRES @ USC 17 - 45
Aug 31, 2019 FRES @ USC 23 - 31
Aug 30, 2014 FRES @ USC 13 - 52
Dec 21, 2013 FRES @ USC 20 - 45
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +30.2% more
USC: 22.2 vs Fresno State: 17.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
USC: 0.5 vs Fresno State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
USC: 1.3 vs Fresno State: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.6% more
USC: 399.4 vs Fresno State: 364.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 15.0 0
USC Score 43.0 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 17.0 27.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 122.4 / 191.1 140.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 399.4 / 364.5 552.0 / 116.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +954 / -1974 → +1000 / -1786
4%TICKETS96%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +22.5 / -22.5
36%TICKETS64%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 51.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -39.0 ATS +/-: -17.5
USC Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 27.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -39.0 ATS +/-: -17.5
USC Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 27.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -12.5
USC
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
FRES
USC
FRES
ML
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
ATS
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
TTL
50% 1-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC's Real Home Crowd Numbers Revealed: Announced vs. Actual Gat…
nypost 0 minutes ago
USC Trojans Blank Fresno State 39-0: Five Key Takeaways from a D…
yahoo 9 hours, 20 minutes ago
Maiava Shines with 349 Passing Yards as USC Blankets Fresno Stat…
ctinsider 9 hours, 22 minutes ago
Boston College Eyes Fresh Start in Season Opener Against Cincinn…
boston 21 hours, 27 minutes ago
USC vs. Fresno State: Trojans Aim for Complete Performance in Fr…
pasadenastarnews 1 day, 21 hours ago