Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ USC FRES @ USC

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

2-0  |  Home

39
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
7%
📊
USC
93%
FRESNO ST 9% Book Odds: +1036
USC 95% Book Odds: -1774
Book Implied: 8.80% / 94.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
52.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 52.0 66%
Under 52.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
USC
Book Spread
-21.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (USC)
Fresno StFRES (+21.5) 0 USCUSC (-21.5)
USC Trojans (-21.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

2.3%

USC Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

FRES By 1-6 points

1.4%

FRES By 7-13 points

0.5%

USC By 1-6 points

3.8%

USC By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 15.20
43
USC
Book Implied: 36.80
Simulated Score
14
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 15.20
38
USC
Book Implied: 36.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim USC Win
99% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI USC (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim USC (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim o52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 FRES @ USC 0 - 39
Sep 17, 2022 FRES @ USC 17 - 45
Aug 31, 2019 FRES @ USC 23 - 31
Aug 30, 2014 FRES @ USC 13 - 52
Dec 21, 2013 FRES @ USC 20 - 45
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +30.2% more
USC: 22.2 vs Fresno State: 17.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
USC: 0.5 vs Fresno State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
USC: 1.3 vs Fresno State: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.6% more
USC: 399.4 vs Fresno State: 364.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 15.0 0
USC Score 43.0 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 17.0 27.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 122.4 / 191.1 140.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 399.4 / 364.5 552.0 / 116.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +954 / -1974 → +1036 / -1774 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +21.5 / -21.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 52
51%TICKETS49%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
FRES
USC
FRES
ML
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
100% 5-0
ATS
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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