Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wyoming @ Colorado St WYO @ CSU

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

1-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
@
Nathan Sutcliffe
KEY GAME

Nathan Sutcliffe

#39 | Punter
Player
Bart Edmiston None-None
Nathan Sutcliffe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WYOMING
49%
📊
COLORADO ST
51%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (WYO)
WYOMING 43% Book Odds: +134
COLORADO ST 60% Book Odds: -152
Book Implied: 42.70% / 60.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
Over 46.5 50%
Under 46.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
WYOMING
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Wyoming)
WyomingWYO (+3) 0 Colorado StCSU (-3)
Wyoming Cowboys (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wyoming Cover

51.4%

Colorado St Cover

48.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WYO +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

WYO By 1-6 points

16.3%

WYO By 7-13 points

15.0%

CSU By 1-6 points

16.6%

CSU By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
23
WYOMING
Book Implied: 21.80
23.5
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
14
WYOMING
Book Implied: 21.80
32
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colorado St Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Colorado St Win
96% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wyoming (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.5
D
Sim Colorado St (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.5
D
Sim u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 WYO @ CSU 13 - 35
Oct 25, 2025 CSU @ WYO 0 - 28
Nov 15, 2024 WYO @ CSU 10 - 24
Nov 3, 2023 CSU @ WYO 15 - 24
Nov 12, 2022 WYO @ CSU 14 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +63.5% more
Colorado State: 1.9 vs Wyoming: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Colorado State: 321.2 vs Wyoming: 254.3
First Downs (L5) +14.8% more
Colorado State: 17.2 vs Wyoming: 15.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.4% more
Wyoming: 91.6 vs Colorado State: 49.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WYO Score 23.0 13
CSU Score 23.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 15.0 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 49.1 / 91.6 154.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 321.2 / 254.3 396.0 / 273.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -172 → +134 / -152 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 46.5 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WYO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WYO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
CSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WYO
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
WYO
CSU
WYO
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
TTL
0% 0-4
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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