Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Furman @ Tennessee FUR @ TENN

FURMAN

FURMANFUR

1-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

1-0  |  Home

56
Key Game
Dylan Gomez
KEY GAME

Dylan Gomez

#83 | Place kicker
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Dylan Gomez None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FURMAN
7%
📊
TENNESSEE
94%
FURMAN --
TENNESSEE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
66.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +13.0 (Under)
Over 66.5 24%
Under 66.5 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.3
FURMAN
Book Spread
+48
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.7 points (Furman)
FurmanFUR (+48) 0 TennesseeTENN (-48)
Furman Paladins (+48) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Furman Cover

97.4%

Tennessee Cover

2.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FUR +27.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)

FUR By 1-6 points

1.6%

FUR By 7-13 points

0.6%

TENN By 1-6 points

4.1%

TENN By 7-13 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
13.1
FURMAN
Book Implied: 9.20
40.4
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 57.20
Simulated Score
13
FURMAN
Book Implied: 9.20
40
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 57.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Tennessee Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Furman (+48) Win
Proj Spread: +27.3
B
Sim Furman (+48) Win
Proj Spread: +27.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u66.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.5
A
Sim u66.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 FUR @ TENN 9 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +91.5% more
Tennessee: 149.5 vs Furman: 78.1
First Downs (L5) +78.6% more
Tennessee: 24.2 vs Furman: 13.5
Total Yards (L5) +60.8% more
Tennessee: 428.5 vs Furman: 266.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Furman: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FUR Score 13.1 9
TENN Score 40.4 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 13.5 29.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 149.5 / 78.1 329.0 / 178.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 428.5 / 266.5 638.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +48 / -48 → +48 / -48
93%TICKETS7%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 66.5 → 66.5
23%TICKETS77%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FUR
--
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FUR
--
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FUR
--
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
FUR
TENN
FUR
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
100% 5-0
100% 1-0
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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