Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ TCU UNC @ TCU

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-2  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Aviva Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

2-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Aeron Burrell
KEY GAME

Aeron Burrell

#92 | Place kicker
@
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
Player
Aeron Burrell None-None
John Hoyet Chance None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
8%
📊
TCU
92%
▲ Edge: +14.70% (TCU)
NORTH CAROLINA 27% Book Odds: +269
TCU 77% Book Odds: -336
Book Implied: 27.10% / 77.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.9
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 (Over)
Over 46.5 70%
Under 46.5 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.3
TCU
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.8 points (TCU)
North CarolinaUNC (+8.5) 0 TCUTCU (-8.5)
TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

3.5%

TCU Cover

96.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -25.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

UNC By 1-6 points

2.1%

UNC By 7-13 points

0.9%

TCU By 1-6 points

5.1%

TCU By 7-13 points

11.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14.8
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 19
40.1
TCU
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
20
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 19
28
TCU
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU Loss
92% Win Prob
A
Sim TCU Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI TCU (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.3
A
Sim North Carolina (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.9
A
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 UNC @ TCU 15 - 10
Sep 1, 2025 TCU @ UNC 48 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +102.0% more
TCU: 1.7 vs North Carolina: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.7% more
TCU: 160.0 vs North Carolina: 97.7
Total Yards (L5) +47.8% more
TCU: 440.4 vs North Carolina: 298.0
First Downs (L5) +35.9% more
TCU: 23.1 vs North Carolina: 17.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 14.8 15
TCU Score 40.1 10
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +255 / -325 → +269 / -336 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 46.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
UNC
TCU
UNC
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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