Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Oregon BOIS @ ORE

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

0-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

1-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Na'eem Offord
KEY GAME

Na'eem Offord

#2 | Defensive Back
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Na'eem Offord None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
5%
📊
OREGON
95%
BOISE ST 7% Book Odds: +1365
OREGON 96% Book Odds: -2628
Book Implied: 6.80% / 96.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 70%
Under 51.5 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.5
OREGON
Book Spread
-24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Oregon)
Boise StBOIS (+24.5) 0 OregonORE (-24.5)
Oregon Ducks (-24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

1.5%

Oregon Cover

98.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -30.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

BOIS By 1-6 points

0.9%

BOIS By 7-13 points

0.3%

ORE By 1-6 points

2.7%

ORE By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 13.50
45.5
OREGON
Book Implied: 38
Simulated Score
29
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 13.50
32
OREGON
Book Implied: 38
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Oregon Win
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon (-24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.5
C
Sim Boise St (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.5
B
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 BOIS @ ORE 27 - 34
Sep 7, 2024 BOIS @ ORE 34 - 37
Dec 16, 2017 BOIS @ ORE 38 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.3% more
Oregon: 182.8 vs Boise State: 141.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.4% more
Oregon: 458.3 vs Boise State: 397.0
Turnovers (L5) +20.4% more
Boise State: 2.2 vs Oregon: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 15.0 27
ORE Score 45.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 21.1 18.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 182.8 / 141.3 119.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 458.3 / 397.0 497.0 / 274.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1157 / -2697 → +1365 / -2628
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +24.5 / -24.5
48%TICKETS52%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 51.5 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
BOIS
ORE
BOIS
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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