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TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

0-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

1-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
@
Gianni Spetic
KEY GAME

Gianni Spetic

#44 | Place kicker
Player
Tom Flintoff None-None
Gianni Spetic None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
7%
📊
TEXAS
93%
TEXAS ST --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.0
Projected
Book Total
60.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 60.0 60%
Under 60.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
+29.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Texas State)
Texas StTXST (+29.5) 0 TexasTEX (-29.5)
Texas State Bobcats (+29.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

97.3%

Texas Cover

2.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXST +27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXST By 1-6 points

1.6%

TXST By 7-13 points

0.6%

TEX By 1-6 points

4.2%

TEX By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 15.20
45.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 44.80
Simulated Score
31
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 15.20
34
TEXAS
Book Implied: 44.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas Win
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas St (+29.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +27.0
C
Sim Texas St (+29.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o60.0 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
C
Sim o60.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 TXST @ TEX 7 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.5% more
Texas State: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.1% more
Texas State: 227.6 vs Texas: 127.1
First Downs (L5) +21.5% more
Texas State: 24.4 vs Texas: 19.1
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
Texas State: 485.1 vs Texas: 393.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 18.5 7
TEX Score 45.5 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 24.4 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 127.1 / 227.6 156.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.73 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 393.5 / 485.1 516.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2500 / -6667 → -- / --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +29.5 / -29.5 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60 → 60
12%TICKETS88%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
TEX Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
TEX
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.1
TEX
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TXST
TEX
TXST
ML
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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