Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Wake Forest AKR @ WAKE

AKRON

AKRONAKR

0-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

1-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Ethan Hyams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
8%
📊
WAKE FOREST
92%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (AKR)
AKRON 6% Book Odds: +1500
WAKE FOREST 97% Book Odds: -3571
Book Implied: 6.20% / 97.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 (Over)
Over 50.5 67%
Under 50.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+26.0
AKRON
Book Spread
+27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Akron)
AkronAKR (+27.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (-27.5)
Akron Zips (+27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

96.8%

Wake Forest Cover

3.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AKR +26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

AKR By 1-6 points

1.9%

AKR By 7-13 points

0.8%

WAKE By 1-6 points

4.8%

WAKE By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
AKRON
Book Implied: 11.50
42.2
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 39
Simulated Score
26
AKRON
Book Implied: 11.50
34
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 39
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wake Forest Win
92% Win Prob
C
Sim Wake Forest Win
79% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Akron (-27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +26.0
D
Sim Akron (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
A
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 AKR @ WAKE 16 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.0% more
Wake Forest: 170.3 vs Akron: 139.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Wake Forest: 0.4 vs Akron: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Wake Forest: 430.9 vs Akron: 395.1
Turnovers (L5) +11.2% more
Akron: 2.1 vs Wake Forest: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 16.2 16
WAKE Score 42.2 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 23.4 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 170.3 / 139.6 203.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 430.9 / 395.1 559.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1009 / -2156 → +1500 / -3571 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +27.5 / -27.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 50.5 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.0 ATS +/-: +5.5
WAKE Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.0 ATS +/-: -5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: -22.0 ATS +/-: +5.5
WAKE
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 22.0 ATS +/-: -5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
1-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +3.5
WAKE
1-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
AKR
WAKE
AKR
ML
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
ATS
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
TTL
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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