Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana St @ Purdue INST @ PUR

INDIANA STATE

INDIANA STINST

0-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

1-0  |  Home

44
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Sebastian Lopez

#37 | Place kicker
@
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
Player
Sebastian Lopez None-None
Dylan Drennan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA ST
4%
📊
PURDUE
96%
INDIANA ST --
PURDUE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 56.0 56%
Under 56.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+32.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
+35
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Indiana State)
Indiana StINST (+35) 0 PurduePUR (-35)
Indiana State Sycamores (+35) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana St Cover

98.9%

Purdue Cover

1.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around INST +32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

INST By 1-6 points

0.7%

INST By 7-13 points

0.2%

PUR By 1-6 points

2.2%

PUR By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13
INDIANA STATE
Book Implied: 10.50
45
PURDUE
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
14
INDIANA STATE
Book Implied: 10.50
31
PURDUE
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Purdue Win
96% Win Prob
B
Sim Purdue Win
95% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Indiana St (+35) Win
Proj Spread: +32.0
C
Sim Indiana St (+35) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 INST @ PUR 19 - 44
Aug 31, 2024 INST @ PUR 0 - 49
Sep 10, 2022 INST @ PUR 0 - 56
Sep 12, 2015 INST @ PUR 14 - 38
Sep 7, 2013 INST @ PUR 14 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +85.7% more
Purdue: 280.1 vs Indiana State: 150.9
First Downs (L5) +70.9% more
Purdue: 15.6 vs Indiana State: 9.1
Turnovers (L5) +69.0% more
Purdue: 1.6 vs Indiana State: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.6% more
Purdue: 96.1 vs Indiana State: 75.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 13.0 19
PUR Score 45.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 9.1 28.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 96.1 / 75.3 177.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.55 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 280.1 / 150.9 523.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
8%TICKETS92%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +35 / -35 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 56
20%TICKETS80%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
--
PUR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
--
PUR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
--
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
INST
PUR
INST
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
50% 1-1
50% 2-2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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