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SMU

SMUSMU

1-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 7:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

1-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
@
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
Player
Wade McSparron None-None
Daniel Hughes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
50%
📊
FLORIDA ST
50%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (FSU)
SMU 58% Book Odds: -139
FLORIDA ST 45% Book Odds: +123
Book Implied: 58.20% / 44.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
54.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 54.0 44%
Under 54.0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Florida State)
SMUSMU (-2.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+2.5)
Florida State Seminoles (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SMU Cover

47.2%

Florida St Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

SMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

SMU By 7-13 points

16.1%

FSU By 1-6 points

16.1%

FSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
SMU
Book Implied: 28.20
25.5
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
28
SMU
Book Implied: 28.20
25
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI SMU Win
50% Win Prob
A
Sim SMU Win
62% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Sim SMU (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Sim u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2026 SMU @ FSU 27 - 24
Sep 28, 2024 FSU @ SMU 16 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +11.0% more
SMU: 459.2 vs Florida State: 408.6
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
Florida State: 2.0 vs SMU: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 26.5 27
FSU Score 25.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 22.3 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 176.4 / 171.5 199.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.13 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 408.6 / 459.2 324.0 / 585.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.6 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -153 / +130 → -139 / +123 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 54 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
FSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
SMU
FSU
SMU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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