Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ Penn State MRSH @ PSU

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

1-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Cooper Heimbach None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
8%
📊
PENN STATE
92%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (MRSH)
MARSHALL 8% Book Odds: +1132
PENN STATE 96% Book Odds: -2271
Book Implied: 8.10% / 95.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
52.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 (Over)
Over 52.0 71%
Under 52.0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
-23
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Penn State)
MarshallMRSH (+23) 0 Penn StatePSU (-23)
Penn State Nittany Lions (-23) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

3.7%

Penn State Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

MRSH By 1-6 points

2.2%

MRSH By 7-13 points

0.9%

PSU By 1-6 points

5.3%

PSU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 14.50
43.5
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 37.50
Simulated Score
28
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 14.50
36
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 37.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Penn State Win
79% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penn State (-23) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Marshall (+23) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Sim o52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 MRSH @ PSU 0 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Penn State: 194.3 vs Marshall: 169.0
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Penn State: 0.5 vs Marshall: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +78.3% more
Marshall: 1.4 vs Penn State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 18.5 0
PSU Score 43.5 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 21.7 25.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 194.3 / 169.0 163.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 401.2 / 420.8 487.0 / 147.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1151 / -2672 → +1132 / -2271 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +23 / -23 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 52 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -9.6
PSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -9.6
PSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.4
PSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
MRSH
PSU
MRSH
ML
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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