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WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

0-1  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

1-0  |  Home

13
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Cam Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
8%
📊
MICHIGAN
92%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (WMU)
W MICHIGAN 5% Book Odds: +1807
MICHIGAN 98% Book Odds: -3997
Book Implied: 5.20% / 97.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 52%
Under 49.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.6
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Western Michigan)
W MichiganWMU (+27.5) 0 MichiganMICH (-27.5)
Western Michigan Broncos (+27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

96.6%

Michigan Cover

3.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU +25.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

WMU By 1-6 points

2.0%

WMU By 7-13 points

0.8%

MICH By 1-6 points

5.0%

MICH By 7-13 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
15.2
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 11
40.8
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 38.50
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 11
31
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 38.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Michigan Win
75% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI W Michigan (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: +25.6
D
Sim W Michigan (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 WMU @ MICH 12 - 13
Sep 4, 2021 WMU @ MICH 14 - 47
Sep 8, 2018 WMU @ MICH 3 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +101.0% more
Michigan: 2.0 vs Western Michigan: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.0% more
Western Michigan: 278.3 vs Michigan: 183.7
Total Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Western Michigan: 391.7 vs Michigan: 341.4
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Western Michigan: 0.6 vs Michigan: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 15.2 12
MICH Score 40.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 19.0 12.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 183.7 / 278.3 106.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 341.4 / 391.7 276.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.9 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1518 / -4298 → +1807 / -3997
1%TICKETS99%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +27.5 / -27.5
88%TICKETS12%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
MICH
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
MICH Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
MICH
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
WMU
MICH
WMU
ML
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
ATS
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
TTL
14% 1-6
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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