Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ Michigan St TOL @ MSU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

0-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

1-0  |  Home

30
Key Game
Markus Meincke
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
@
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
Player
Markus Meincke None-None
Rhys Dakin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
20%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
80%
TOLEDO 23% Book Odds: +333
MICHIGAN ST 81% Book Odds: -416
Book Implied: 23.10% / 80.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 48.0 62%
Under 48.0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.4
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Michigan State)
ToledoTOL (+10) 0 Michigan StMSU (-10)
Michigan State Spartans (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

15.2%

Michigan St Cover

84.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -14.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

TOL By 1-6 points

7.6%

TOL By 7-13 points

4.5%

MSU By 1-6 points

12.6%

MSU By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 19
34.2
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
29
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 19
30
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan St Win
80% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Michigan St (-10) Push
Proj Spread: -14.4
C
Sim Toledo (+10) Push
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 TOL @ MSU 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.9% more
Toledo: 1.3 vs Michigan State: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.9% more
Toledo: 171.8 vs Michigan State: 122.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 19.8 20
MSU Score 34.2 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 19.3 26.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 122.1 / 171.8 150.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.72 / 0.28
Total Yards 367.7 / 378.2 397.0 / 273.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +319 / -428 → +333 / -416
5%TICKETS95%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +10 / -10
40%TICKETS60%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
MSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
MSU
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.8
MSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
TOL
MSU
TOL
ML
100% 8-0
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
ATS
57% 4-3-1
43% 3-4-1
43% 3-4-1
57% 4-3-1
TTL
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
25% 2-6
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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