Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ Iowa NIU @ IOWA

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:15 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

1-0  |  Home

40
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Boston Everitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
4%
📊
IOWA
96%
N ILLINOIS --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 78%
Under 44.5 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
IOWA
Book Spread
-32
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Iowa)
N IllinoisNIU (+32) 0 IowaIOWA (-32)
Iowa Hawkeyes (-32) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

0.9%

Iowa Cover

99.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

NIU By 1-6 points

0.6%

NIU By 7-13 points

0.2%

IOWA By 1-6 points

1.9%

IOWA By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 6.20
45
IOWA
Book Implied: 38.20
Simulated Score
13
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 6.20
34
IOWA
Book Implied: 38.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Iowa Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Iowa (-32) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim N Illinois (+32) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 NIU @ IOWA 0 - 40
Sep 1, 2018 NIU @ IOWA 7 - 33
Aug 31, 2013 NIU @ IOWA 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.0% more
Iowa: 1.2 vs Northern Illinois: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.8% more
Northern Illinois: 235.0 vs Iowa: 176.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 12.0 0
IOWA Score 45.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 17.4 26.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 176.8 / 235.0 289.0 / 7.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 324.0 / 312.7 507.0 / 120.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
4%TICKETS96%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +32 / -32 → +32 / -32
97%TICKETS3%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 44.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-7-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.9
IOWA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.9
IOWA Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.2
IOWA
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
NIU
IOWA
NIU
ML
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
ATS
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
TTL
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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