Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAB @ Illinois UAB @ ILL

UAB

UABUAB

0-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Gies Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Badger Hargett
KEY GAME

Badger Hargett

#20 | Punter
@
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
Player
Badger Hargett None-None
Lars Rau None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
5%
📊
ILLINOIS
95%
UAB 5% Book Odds: +1761
ILLINOIS 98% Book Odds: -3844
Book Implied: 5.40% / 97.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 69%
Under 54.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
-26.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Illinois)
UABUAB (+26.5) 0 IllinoisILL (-26.5)
Illinois Fighting Illini (-26.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

1.1%

Illinois Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

UAB By 1-6 points

0.7%

UAB By 7-13 points

0.2%

ILL By 1-6 points

2.2%

ILL By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
UAB
Book Implied: 14
47.5
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 40.50
Simulated Score
21
UAB
Book Implied: 14
27
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 40.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Illinois Win
72% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Illinois (-26.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim UAB (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 UAB @ ILL 23 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +69.7% more
UAB: 2.0 vs Illinois: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.5% more
UAB: 171.0 vs Illinois: 127.4
Total Yards (L5) +15.4% more
UAB: 396.6 vs Illinois: 335.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
UAB: 0.5 vs Illinois: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 15.5 23
ILL Score 47.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 22.3 17.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 127.4 / 171.0 150.0 / 194.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 335.6 / 396.6 332.0 / 413.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1641 / -4946 → +1761 / -3844 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28.5 / -28.5 → +26.5 / -26.5 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57 → 54.5 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
UAB
ILL
UAB
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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