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UCLA

UCLAUCLA

1-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

0-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
@
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
Player
Curtis Gerrand None-None
Angus Davies None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
32%
📊
CALIFORNIA
68%
▲ Edge: +22.10% (CAL)
UCLA 57% Book Odds: -133
CALIFORNIA 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 57.10% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 46%
Under 53.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (California)
UCLAUCLA (-2.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+2.5)
California Golden Bears (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

28.4%

California Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

UCLA By 1-6 points

12.2%

UCLA By 7-13 points

8.8%

CAL By 1-6 points

16.1%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22
UCLA
Book Implied: 28
30
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
14
UCLA
Book Implied: 28
32
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI California Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim California Loss
96% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI California (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim California (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 UCLA @ CAL 45 - 24
Nov 25, 2023 CAL @ UCLA 33 - 7
Nov 25, 2022 UCLA @ CAL 35 - 28
Nov 27, 2021 CAL @ UCLA 14 - 42
Nov 15, 2020 CAL @ UCLA 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +50.3% more
California: 23.5 vs UCLA: 15.6
Total Yards (L5) +45.5% more
California: 408.9 vs UCLA: 281.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
California: 0.5 vs UCLA: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +31.1% more
UCLA: 1.0 vs California: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 22.0 45
CAL Score 30.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 15.6 23.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 94.3 / 105.5 119.0 / 277.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.52 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 408.9 / 281.0 410.0 / 461.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -111 / -105 → -133 / +118 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
66%TICKETS34%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
UCLA
CAL
UCLA
ML
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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