Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCLA @ California UCLA @ CAL

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

1-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

0-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
@
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
Player
Curtis Gerrand None-None
Angus Davies None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
32%
📊
CALIFORNIA
68%
▲ Edge: +22.10% (CAL)
UCLA 57% Book Odds: -133
CALIFORNIA 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 57.10% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 46%
Under 53.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (California)
UCLAUCLA (-2.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+2.5)
California Golden Bears (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

28.4%

California Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

UCLA By 1-6 points

12.2%

UCLA By 7-13 points

8.8%

CAL By 1-6 points

16.1%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22
UCLA
Book Implied: 28
30
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
14
UCLA
Book Implied: 28
32
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI California Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim California Loss
96% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI California (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim California (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 UCLA @ CAL 45 - 24
Nov 25, 2023 CAL @ UCLA 33 - 7
Nov 25, 2022 UCLA @ CAL 35 - 28
Nov 27, 2021 CAL @ UCLA 14 - 42
Nov 15, 2020 CAL @ UCLA 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +50.3% more
California: 23.5 vs UCLA: 15.6
Total Yards (L5) +45.5% more
California: 408.9 vs UCLA: 281.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
California: 0.5 vs UCLA: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +31.1% more
UCLA: 1.0 vs California: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 22.0 45
CAL Score 30.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 15.6 23.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 94.3 / 105.5 119.0 / 277.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.52 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 408.9 / 281.0 410.0 / 461.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -111 / -105 → -133 / +118 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
66%TICKETS34%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 19.1 ATS +/-: +13.4
CAL
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -9.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 19.1 ATS +/-: +13.4
CAL
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -9.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.9
CAL
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
UCLA
CAL
UCLA
ML
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
ATS
25% 2-6
33% 2-4-1
50% 4-4
17% 1-5-1
TTL
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
75% 6-2
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Logan Ryan's Second Act: Former Super Bowl Champion Aims to Rede…
yahoo 19 hours, 16 minutes ago
Brent Pry's Virginia Tech Defense Making Noise in Key Statistica…
yahoo 19 hours, 24 minutes ago
Cal's Unconventional Fix: Oven Mitts to Curb Penalties
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Arizona's Brent Brennan Drops $2K on Tequila Shots and Buys 1,00…
foxnews 1 day, 1 hour ago
Dante Moore's Season-Ending Injury Shakes Up 2027 NFL Draft Outl…
yahoo 1 day, 7 hours ago