Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ Pitt M-OH @ PITT

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

0-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

1-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
@
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
Player
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
Gabe Russo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
13%
📊
PITT
87%
MIAMI OH 16% Book Odds: +541
PITT 89% Book Odds: -799
Book Implied: 15.60% / 88.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 (Over)
Over 47.0 68%
Under 47.0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Pittsburgh)
Miami OHM-OH (+16.5) 0 PittPITT (-16.5)
Pittsburgh Panthers (-16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

7.7%

Pitt Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

M-OH By 1-6 points

4.2%

M-OH By 7-13 points

2.1%

PITT By 1-6 points

8.6%

PITT By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
18
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 15.20
38
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31.80
Simulated Score
25
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 15.20
32
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pitt Win
87% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Win
75% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pitt (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
C
Sim Miami OH (+16.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Sim o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 M-OH @ PITT 14 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +104.2% more
Pittsburgh: 2.4 vs Miami (OH): 1.2
First Downs (L5) +22.2% more
Pittsburgh: 20.1 vs Miami (OH): 16.4
Total Yards (L5) +19.4% more
Pittsburgh: 345.9 vs Miami (OH): 289.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Miami (OH): 132.9 vs Pittsburgh: 107.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 18.0 14
PITT Score 38.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 16.4 33.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 107.7 / 132.9 166.0 / 28.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.7 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 345.9 / 289.6 646.0 / 289.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +528 / -826 → +541 / -799
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +16.5 / -16.5
53%TICKETS47%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 47 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.7
PITT
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.7
PITT Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.4
PITT
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
M-OH
PITT
M-OH
ML
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
ATS
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
71% 5-2-1
75% 6-2
71% 5-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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