Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ Tulsa OKST @ TLSA

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:45 PM ET
H. A. Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

1-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
@
Max Tulen
KEY GAME

Max Tulen

#29 | Punter
Player
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
Max Tulen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
60%
📊
TULSA
40%
▲ Edge: +20.40% (TLSA)
OKLAHOMA ST 84% Book Odds: -529
TULSA 20% Book Odds: +408
Book Implied: 84.10% / 19.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.6
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +10.9 (Under)
Over 58.5 29%
Under 58.5 71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
TULSA
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Tulsa)
Oklahoma StOKST (-13.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (+13.5)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

38.8%

Tulsa Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TLSA +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

OKST By 1-6 points

17.0%

OKST By 7-13 points

18.0%

TLSA By 1-6 points

14.7%

TLSA By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 36
21.8
TULSA
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
12
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 36
41
TULSA
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma St Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Tulsa Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tulsa (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Sim Tulsa (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.6
B
Sim u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 OKST @ TLSA 10 - 24
Sep 19, 2025 TLSA @ OKST 19 - 12
Sep 14, 2024 OKST @ TLSA 45 - 10
Sep 11, 2021 TLSA @ OKST 23 - 28
Sep 19, 2020 TLSA @ OKST 7 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Oklahoma State: 2.0 vs Tulsa: 1.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +137.5% more
Tulsa: 204.6 vs Oklahoma State: 86.2
First Downs (L5) +55.9% more
Tulsa: 22.4 vs Oklahoma State: 14.3
Total Yards (L5) +55.4% more
Tulsa: 413.5 vs Oklahoma State: 266.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 25.8 10
TLSA Score 21.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 14.3 15.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 204.6 / 86.2 134.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.09 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 413.5 / 266.1 361.0 / 368.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -633 / +433 → -529 / +408 ↑
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14 / +14 → -13.5 / +13.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61 → 58.5 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
OKST
TLSA
OKST
ML
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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