Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boston College @ Cincinnati BC @ CIN

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

0-1  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

1-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Bryce LaFollette
KEY GAME

Bryce LaFollette

#96 | Punter
@
Stephen Rusnak
KEY GAME

Stephen Rusnak

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Bryce LaFollette None-None
Stephen Rusnak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
17%
📊
CINCINNATI
83%
▲ Edge: +9.80% (CIN)
BOSTON COLLEGE 30% Book Odds: +236
CINCINNATI 74% Book Odds: -280
Book Implied: 29.80% / 73.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 (Over)
Over 50.5 58%
Under 50.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Cincinnati)
Boston CollegeBC (+7.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (-7.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

11.2%

Cincinnati Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

BC By 1-6 points

5.9%

BC By 7-13 points

3.2%

CIN By 1-6 points

10.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 21.50
36.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
23
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 21.50
34
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati Win
83% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Win
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.4
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 BC @ CIN 15 - 34
Jan 2, 2020 BC @ CIN 6 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.8% more
Cincinnati: 1.6 vs Boston College: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Cincinnati: 146.2 vs Boston College: 125.1
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Boston College: 21.6 vs Cincinnati: 18.3
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Boston College: 0.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 19.2 15
CIN Score 36.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 21.6 17.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 146.2 / 125.1 254.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 392.8 / 416.8 339.0 / 388.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +236 / -297 → +236 / -280 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +7.5 / -7.5
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 50.5 ↓
16%TICKETS84%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BC
CIN
BC
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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