Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Arizona @ Arizona NAU @ ARIZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA

N ARIZONANAU

1-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:30 PM ET
Casino Del Sol Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

1-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Noah Abela
KEY GAME

Noah Abela

#39 | Place kicker
@
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
Player
Noah Abela None-None
Chase Ridley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ARIZONA
4%
📊
ARIZONA
96%
N ARIZONA --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.4
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 59.5 57%
Under 59.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
N ArizonaNAU (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Arizona Cover

0.8%

Arizona Cover

99.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

NAU By 1-6 points

0.5%

NAU By 7-13 points

0.2%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

1.6%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
NORTHERN ARIZONA
48.2
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
14
NORTHERN ARIZONA
30
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Arizona Win
94% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (-33.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Arizona (-33.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.4
C
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 NAU @ ARIZ 7 - 35
Sep 7, 2024 NAU @ ARIZ 10 - 22
Sep 2, 2023 NAU @ ARIZ 3 - 38
Sep 18, 2021 NAU @ ARIZ 21 - 19
Sep 7, 2019 NAU @ ARIZ 41 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.1% more
Arizona: 140.3 vs Northern Arizona: 86.0
Total Yards (L5) +40.6% more
Arizona: 385.6 vs Northern Arizona: 274.2
First Downs (L5) +32.6% more
Arizona: 22.0 vs Northern Arizona: 16.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Northern Arizona: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 14.2 7
ARIZ Score 48.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 16.6 28.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 140.3 / 86.0 206.0 / -7.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 385.6 / 274.2 520.0 / 193.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2400 / -10000 → -- / --
1%TICKETS99%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +29.5 / -29.5 → -- / --
94%TICKETS6%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 59.5 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
--
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
--
ARIZ Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
--
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
NAU
ARIZ
NAU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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