Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Abilene Chrstn @ Texas Tech ACU @ TTU

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

ABILENE CHRSTNACU

0-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

1-0  |  Home

33
Key Game
Jace Gilbert
KEY GAME

Jace Gilbert

#20 | Punter
@
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
Player
Jace Gilbert None-None
Will Karoll None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ABILENE CHRSTN
17%
📊
TEXAS TECH
83%
ABILENE CHRSTN --
TEXAS TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.8
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.7 (Under)
Over 60.5 38%
Under 60.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.2
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
+44.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.3 points (Abilene Christian)
Abilene ChrstnACU (+44.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (-44.5)
Abilene Christian Wildcats (+44.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Abilene Chrstn Cover

89.0%

Texas Tech Cover

11.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ACU +17.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

ACU By 1-6 points

5.8%

ACU By 7-13 points

3.1%

TTU By 1-6 points

10.6%

TTU By 7-13 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Implied: 8
36
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 52.50
Simulated Score
19
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Implied: 8
36
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 52.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
83% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Tech Win
95% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Abilene Chrstn (+44.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.2
A
Sim Abilene Chrstn (+44.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.8
C
Sim u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ACU @ TTU 10 - 33
Aug 31, 2024 ACU @ TTU 51 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +113.0% more
Texas Tech: 1.8 vs Abilene Christian: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.5% more
Texas Tech: 174.0 vs Abilene Christian: 135.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Texas Tech: 446.2 vs Abilene Christian: 393.3
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Texas Tech: 23.0 vs Abilene Christian: 20.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 18.8 10
TTU Score 36.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 20.9 26.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 174.0 / 135.4 173.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 446.2 / 393.3 471.0 / 194.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +42.5 / -42.5 → +44.5 / -44.5 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 60.5 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
--
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
--
TTU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
--
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
ACU
TTU
ACU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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