Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Texas A&M MOST @ TA&M

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

1-0  |  Home

50
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Asher Murray
KEY GAME

Asher Murray

#90 | Place kicker
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Asher Murray None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
5%
📊
TEXAS A&M
95%
MISSOURI ST --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 53.5 66%
Under 53.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.5
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Missouri State)
Missouri StMOST (+40.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (-40.5)
Missouri State Bears (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

98.5%

Texas A&M Cover

1.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST +30.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MOST By 1-6 points

0.9%

MOST By 7-13 points

0.3%

TA&M By 1-6 points

2.7%

TA&M By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 6.50
45.5
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 47
Simulated Score
26
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 6.50
32
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 47
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas A&M Win
72% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +30.5
C
Sim Missouri St (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.5
B
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 MOST @ TA&M 0 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.3% more
Texas A&M: 2.4 vs Missouri State: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.2% more
Texas A&M: 151.6 vs Missouri State: 103.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 15.0 0
TA&M Score 45.5 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 22.6 35.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards 151.6 / 103.7 236.0 / 37.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.72 / 0.28
Total Yards 393.4 / 418.4 505.0 / 67.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +40.5 / -40.5
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53.5 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
MOST
TA&M
MOST
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Texas Longhorns Lead College Football Viewership Through Week 5,…
si 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Alabama Football's Worst Weather Games: From 1964 Snow Bowl to 2…
si 1 day ago
Miami Hurricanes' Shannon Dawson Calls for Abolishing Preseason …
foxnews 1 day, 23 hours ago
Ohio State vs. Iowa Draws Nearly 6 Million Viewers, Tops Week 5 …
yahoo 2 days ago
Former Texas A&M Head Coach Dennis Franchione Dies at 75 After 1…
si 2 days, 5 hours ago