Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Texas A&M MOST @ TA&M

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

1-0  |  Home

50
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Asher Murray
KEY GAME

Asher Murray

#90 | Place kicker
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Asher Murray None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
5%
📊
TEXAS A&M
95%
MISSOURI ST --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 53.5 66%
Under 53.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.5
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Missouri State)
Missouri StMOST (+40.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (-40.5)
Missouri State Bears (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

98.5%

Texas A&M Cover

1.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST +30.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MOST By 1-6 points

0.9%

MOST By 7-13 points

0.3%

TA&M By 1-6 points

2.7%

TA&M By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 6.50
45.5
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 47
Simulated Score
26
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 6.50
32
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 47
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas A&M Win
72% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +30.5
C
Sim Missouri St (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.5
B
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 MOST @ TA&M 0 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.3% more
Texas A&M: 2.4 vs Missouri State: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.2% more
Texas A&M: 151.6 vs Missouri State: 103.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 15.0 0
TA&M Score 45.5 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 22.6 35.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards 151.6 / 103.7 236.0 / 37.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.72 / 0.28
Total Yards 393.4 / 418.4 505.0 / 67.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +40.5 / -40.5
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53.5 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
TA&M Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
TA&M
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: +0.9
TA&M
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
MOST
TA&M
MOST
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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