Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Alabama @ Arkansas UNA @ ARK

NORTH ALABAMA

NORTH ALABAMAUNA

1-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:15 PM ET
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Charles Mulcahy

#97 | Punter
@
Gavin Rush
KEY GAME

Gavin Rush

#37 | Punter
Player
Charles Mulcahy None-None
Gavin Rush None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH ALABAMA
5%
📊
ARKANSAS
95%
NORTH ALABAMA --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.8
Projected
Book Total
63.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +9.2 (Under)
Over 63.0 30%
Under 63.0 71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.2
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.3 points (North Alabama)
North AlabamaUNA (+40.5) 0 ArkansasARK (-40.5)
North Alabama Lions (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Alabama Cover

98.5%

Arkansas Cover

1.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNA +30.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

UNA By 1-6 points

1.0%

UNA By 7-13 points

0.3%

ARK By 1-6 points

2.8%

ARK By 7-13 points

7.1%

AI Model Projected Score
11.8
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 11.20
42
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 51.80
Simulated Score
12
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 11.20
42
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 51.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Arkansas Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Alabama (+40.5) Win
Proj Spread: +30.2
B
Sim North Alabama (+40.5) Win
Proj Spread: +30.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u63.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.8
B
Sim u63.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 UNA @ ARK 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +66.3% more
Arkansas: 375.8 vs North Alabama: 226.0
First Downs (L5) +44.2% more
Arkansas: 20.4 vs North Alabama: 14.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.1% more
Arkansas: 145.9 vs North Alabama: 107.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Arkansas: 0.4 vs North Alabama: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 11.8 14
ARK Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 14.2 29.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 145.9 / 107.2 148.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.59 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.69 / 0.31
Total Yards 375.8 / 226.0 415.0 / 153.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.1 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +40.5 / -40.5
98%TICKETS2%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 63 → 63
7%TICKETS93%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
--
ARK Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
--
ARK Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
--
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
UNA
ARK
UNA
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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