Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisville @ Ole Miss LOU @ MISS

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

0-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

1-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Niall Hayes

#91 | Punter
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Niall Hayes None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
26%
📊
OLE MISS
74%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (MISS)
LOUISVILLE 32% Book Odds: +213
OLE MISS 71% Book Odds: -250
Book Implied: 31.90% / 71.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
55.0
Over / Under Line
Over 55.0 49%
Under 55.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Ole Miss)
LouisvilleLOU (+6.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (-6.5)
Ole Miss Rebels (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisville Cover

21.6%

Ole Miss Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

LOU By 1-6 points

10.0%

LOU By 7-13 points

6.6%

MISS By 1-6 points

14.7%

MISS By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 24.20
33
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 30.80
Simulated Score
23
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 24.20
40
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 30.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss Win
74% Win Prob
B
Sim Ole Miss Win
95% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Ole Miss (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim o55.0 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 LOU @ MISS 38 - 41
Sep 6, 2021 LOU @ MISS 24 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +43.0% more
Ole Miss: 511.1 vs Louisville: 357.4
First Downs (L5) +36.9% more
Ole Miss: 27.8 vs Louisville: 20.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Ole Miss: 0.4 vs Louisville: 0.2
Turnovers (L5) +28.0% more
Louisville: 0.9 vs Ole Miss: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 22.0 38
MISS Score 33.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.8 / 20.3 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 177.4 / 188.9 152.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.38 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 511.1 / 357.4 488.0 / 469.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +205 / -253 → +213 / -250
8%TICKETS92%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +6.5 / -6.5
27%TICKETS73%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55 → 55
71%TICKETS29%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MISS Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
LOU
MISS
LOU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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