Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Clemson @ LSU CLEM @ LSU

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
View Odds Details →

LSU

LSULSU

1-0  |  Home

51
Key Game
Jack Smith
KEY GAME

Jack Smith

#89 | Punter
@
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
Player
Jack Smith None-None
Grant Chadwick None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CLEMSON
36%
📊
LSU
64%
▲ Edge: +11.40% (CLEM)
CLEMSON 24% Book Odds: +311
LSU 79% Book Odds: -384
Book Implied: 24.30% / 79.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 50.0 60%
Under 50.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Clemson)
ClemsonCLEM (+10) 0 LSULSU (-10)
Clemson Tigers (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Clemson Cover

66.6%

LSU Cover

33.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLEM +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

CLEM By 1-6 points

13.5%

CLEM By 7-13 points

10.4%

LSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

LSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 20
29
LSU
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
25
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 20
27
LSU
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI LSU Win
64% Win Prob
D
Sim LSU Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Clemson (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Sim Clemson (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 CLEM @ LSU 10 - 51
Aug 30, 2025 LSU @ CLEM 17 - 10
Jan 13, 2020 CLEM @ LSU 25 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.0% more
LSU: 1.1 vs Clemson: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +21.6% more
Clemson: 20.4 vs LSU: 16.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Clemson: 115.5 vs LSU: 95.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Clemson: 351.5 vs LSU: 305.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLEM Score 23.0 10
LSU Score 29.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.0 / 20.4 38.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 95.1 / 115.5 309.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 305.2 / 351.5 644.0 / 145.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +313 / -418 → +311 / -384 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLEM
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-: -6.4
LSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLEM
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-: -6.4
LSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLEM
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -7.5
LSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
CLEM
LSU
CLEM
ML
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
86% 6-1
ATS
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
TTL
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
12% 1-7
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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