Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Youngstown St @ Kentucky YSU @ UK

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

YOUNGSTOWN STYSU

1-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

1-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Lachlan Amore
KEY GAME

Lachlan Amore

#42 | Punter
@
Thomas O'Hara
KEY GAME

Thomas O'Hara

#48 | Punter
Player
Lachlan Amore None-None
Thomas O'Hara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
YOUNGSTOWN ST
21%
📊
KENTUCKY
79%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (YSU)
YOUNGSTOWN ST 10% Book Odds: +900
KENTUCKY 94% Book Odds: -1587
Book Implied: 10% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.8
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +12.7 (Under)
Over 61.5 25%
Under 61.5 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.2
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
+22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.3 points (Youngstown State)
Youngstown StYSU (+22.5) 0 KentuckyUK (-22.5)
Youngstown State Penguins (+22.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Youngstown St Cover

84.5%

Kentucky Cover

15.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around YSU +14.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)

YSU By 1-6 points

7.7%

YSU By 7-13 points

4.6%

UK By 1-6 points

12.7%

UK By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
17.3
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Implied: 19.50
31.5
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 42
Simulated Score
17
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Implied: 19.50
32
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 42
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kentucky Win
79% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Win
93% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Youngstown St (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.2
C
Sim Youngstown St (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.8
A
Sim u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 YSU @ UK 13 - 45
Sep 17, 2022 YSU @ UK 0 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.8% more
Kentucky: 2.1 vs Youngstown State: 1.4
First Downs (L5) +16.2% more
Kentucky: 17.4 vs Youngstown State: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
YSU Score 17.3 13
UK Score 31.5 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 15.0 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 96.9 / 96.5 205.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 292.3 / 299.9 506.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1500 / -3600 → +900 / -1587 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +22.5 / -22.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 61.5 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
--
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
--
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
--
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
YSU
UK
YSU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
20% 1-4
100% 1-0
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
0% 0-5
0% 0-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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