Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ Auburn BAY @ AUB

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

0-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

1-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Rhett Armstrong None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
28%
📊
AUBURN
72%
BAYLOR 29% Book Odds: +242
AUBURN 75% Book Odds: -297
Book Implied: 29.20% / 74.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.4
Projected
Book Total
59.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.6 (Under)
Over 59.0 41%
Under 59.0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Auburn)
BaylorBAY (+7.5) 0 AuburnAUB (-7.5)
Auburn Tigers (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

23.8%

Auburn Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

BAY By 1-6 points

10.7%

BAY By 7-13 points

7.3%

AUB By 1-6 points

15.3%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 25.80
32.2
AUBURN
Book Implied: 33.20
Simulated Score
27
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 25.80
33
AUBURN
Book Implied: 33.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Win
72% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Win
72% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Auburn (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Baylor (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u59.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.4
C
Sim o59.0 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 BAY @ AUB 16 - 17
Aug 29, 2025 AUB @ BAY 38 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.4% more
Auburn: 188.0 vs Baylor: 138.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Auburn: 0.5 vs Baylor: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +53.4% more
Baylor: 2.2 vs Auburn: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +8.4% more
Baylor: 23.9 vs Auburn: 21.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 22.2 16
AUB Score 32.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 23.9 24.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 188.0 / 138.8 130.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.32
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 432.4 / 420.7 389.0 / 436.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +224 / -279 → +242 / -297 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59 → 59
23%TICKETS77%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
BAY
AUB
BAY
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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