Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Rutgers MASS @ RUTG

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

1-0  |  Road

37
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 6:00 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

0-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Edward Phillipson
KEY GAME

Edward Phillipson

#43 | Punter
@
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
Player
Edward Phillipson None-None
Jakob Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
5%
📊
RUTGERS
95%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (MASS)
UMASS 4% Book Odds: +2200
RUTGERS 99% Book Odds: -7692
Book Implied: 4.30% / 98.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.6
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 (Over)
Over 54.5 65%
Under 54.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
-29.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Rutgers)
UMassMASS (+29.5) 0 RutgersRUTG (-29.5)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-29.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

1.1%

Rutgers Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around RUTG -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

MASS By 1-6 points

0.7%

MASS By 7-13 points

0.2%

RUTG By 1-6 points

2.2%

RUTG By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 12.50
45.8
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 42
Simulated Score
12
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 12.50
41
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 42
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rutgers Loss
95% Win Prob
C
Sim Rutgers Loss
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rutgers (-29.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim UMass (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: +29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.6
B
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 MASS @ RUTG 37 - 21
Aug 30, 2019 MASS @ RUTG 21 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.4% more
Rutgers: 152.1 vs Massachusetts: 89.3
Total Yards (L5) +55.5% more
Rutgers: 396.6 vs Massachusetts: 255.0
First Downs (L5) +32.5% more
Rutgers: 21.5 vs Massachusetts: 16.2
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Rutgers: 0.5 vs Massachusetts: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 13.8 37
RUTG Score 45.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 16.2 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 152.1 / 89.3 30.0 / 200.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 396.6 / 255.0 349.0 / 397.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -7692 → +2200 / -7692
7%TICKETS93%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +29.5 / -29.5 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54 → 54.5 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
MASS
RUTG
MASS
ML
60% 3-2
0% 0-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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