Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Florida St NMSU @ FSU

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

1-0  |  Home

34
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
15%
📊
FLORIDA ST
85%
▲ Edge: +11% (NMSU)
NEW MEXICO ST 4% Book Odds: +2200
FLORIDA ST 99% Book Odds: -8000
Book Implied: 4.30% / 98.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.6
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 53.5 64%
Under 53.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.4
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
+31.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.1 points (New Mexico State)
New Mexico StNMSU (+31.5) 0 Florida StFSU (-31.5)
New Mexico State Aggies (+31.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

90.6%

Florida St Cover

9.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NMSU +18.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

5.1%

NMSU By 7-13 points

2.6%

FSU By 1-6 points

9.7%

FSU By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.6
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 11
39
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 42.50
Simulated Score
11
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 11
42
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 42.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida St Win
85% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St (-30.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.4
C
Sim New Mexico St (+31) Loss
Proj Spread: +31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.6
D
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 NMSU @ FSU 17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.1% more
Florida State: 181.1 vs New Mexico State: 106.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Florida State: 409.5 vs New Mexico State: 361.8
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
New Mexico State: 0.6 vs Florida State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 20.6 17
FSU Score 39.0 34
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6500 → +2200 / -8000
3%TICKETS97%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +31 / -31 → +31.5 / -31.5 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 53.5 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -17.0 ATS +/-: +14.5
FSU Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -14.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: -17.0 ATS +/-: +14.5
FSU
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -14.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -2.5
FSU
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
NMSU
FSU
NMSU
ML
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
ATS
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
TTL
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Aggies' Season Opener Against Missouri State Doubles as Roster E…
victoriaadvocate 0 minutes ago
Aggies Eye National Title With 'Finish' Mentality as Season Open…
fox44news 2 days, 10 hours ago
SMU's Opening Gauntlet: A Detailed Preview of the Mustangs' Firs…
si 2 days, 15 hours ago
Was Jordan Travis the Greatest College QB Ever? The Numbers Make…
headtopics 4 days, 4 hours ago
Week 0 Chaos: Upsets, Blowouts, and a Newcomer Stealing the Show
yardbarker 4 days, 5 hours ago