Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Florida St NMSU @ FSU

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-5  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
@
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
Player
Brody Richter None-None
Daniel Hughes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
15%
📊
FLORIDA ST
85%
NEW MEXICO ST --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.6
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 53.5 64%
Under 53.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.4
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
+31
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.6 points (New Mexico State)
New Mexico StNMSU (+31) 0 Florida StFSU (-31)
New Mexico State Aggies (+31) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

90.6%

Florida St Cover

9.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NMSU +18.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

5.1%

NMSU By 7-13 points

2.6%

FSU By 1-6 points

9.7%

FSU By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.6
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 11.20
39
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 42.20
Simulated Score
11
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 11.20
42
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 42.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Florida St Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St (+31) Win
Proj Spread: +18.4
A
Sim New Mexico St (+31) Win
Proj Spread: +31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.6
B
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 NMSU @ FSU 17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.1% more
Florida State: 181.1 vs New Mexico State: 106.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Florida State: 409.5 vs New Mexico State: 361.8
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
New Mexico State: 0.6 vs Florida State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 20.6 17
FSU Score 39.0 34
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +31 / -31 → +31 / -31
90%TICKETS10%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 53.5 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
FSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
FSU
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.8
FSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
NMSU
FSU
NMSU
ML
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
ATS
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
100% 7-0
50% 4-4
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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