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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-4  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

4-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Omarian Abraham

#56 | Offensive Lineman
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Omarian Abraham None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
28%
📊
VIRGINIA
72%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (UVA)
NC STATE 39% Book Odds: +156
VIRGINIA 64% Book Odds: -178
Book Implied: 39.10% / 64%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.7
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 (Over)
Over 51.5 59%
Under 51.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Virginia)
NC StateNCSU (+4) 0 VirginiaUVA (-4)
Virginia Cavaliers (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

22.7%

Virginia Cover

77.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

NCSU By 1-6 points

10.4%

NCSU By 7-13 points

6.9%

UVA By 1-6 points

15.0%

UVA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.6
NC STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
33.1
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 27.80
Simulated Score
24
NC STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
30
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 27.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Virginia Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -10.5
B
Sim Virginia (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.7
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 NCSU @ UVA 8 - 34
Sep 6, 2025 UVA @ NCSU 31 - 35
Sep 22, 2023 NCSU @ UVA 24 - 21
Oct 10, 2020 NCSU @ UVA 38 - 21
Sep 29, 2018 UVA @ NCSU 21 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +74.0% more
Virginia: 1.4 vs NC State: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Virginia: 165.0 vs NC State: 146.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.6% more
Virginia: 385.7 vs NC State: 351.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 22.6 8
UVA Score 33.1 34
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +181 / -220 → +156 / -178 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
UVA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
UVA Advantage
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +6.6
UVA
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
NCSU
UVA
NCSU
ML
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4-1
71% 5-2
43% 3-4-1
57% 4-3
TTL
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
12% 1-7
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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