MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
77-85 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-76 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Travis Adams
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Adams | None-None | 7.50 | -- | 1.1 | 4 |
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 3.14 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.50
ERA
Ldr 3.14
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
55%
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
TWINS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
MIN @ ARI
4 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
MIN @ ARI
16 - 8
Jun 19, 2026
MIN @ ARI
5 - 9
Sep 14, 2025
ARI @ MIN
6 - 4
Sep 13, 2025
ARI @ MIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
.720
187
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+61.4% more
Minnesota: 2.3
vs
Arizona: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+39.6% more
Minnesota: 20.7
vs
Arizona: 12.5
Hits (L5)
+33.8% more
Minnesota: 11.6
vs
Arizona: 7.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.5% more
Minnesota: 8.8
vs
Arizona: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.0
5
ARI Score
3.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 11.6
13.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.3
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.8
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 20.7
20.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.1
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIN
ARI
MIN
ML
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
54%
86-74
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
56%
89-71
59%
95-66
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-75-9
49%
73-77-9
53%
80-72-9
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