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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

82-80  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 19 • 4:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

58-104  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Montgomery None-None 4.71 -- 0.2 1
Kyle Freeland None-None 7.36 -- 7.1 8
None-None W-L None-None
4.71 Ldr ERA 7.36
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
50%
📊
ROCKIES
50%
PIRATES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

40.1%

Rockies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.734
OPS
▲ .739
186 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +39.9% more
Colorado: 2.6 vs Pittsburgh: 1.8
Walks (L5) +16.2% more
Colorado: 4.5 vs Pittsburgh: 3.8
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.3%
Colorado: 41.7% vs Pittsburgh: 40.4%
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Colorado: 73.9% vs Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.0 3
COL Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 11.6 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 10.9 9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 19.2 / 19.6 15.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
60% 97-64
52% 82-77
55% 88-73
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 86-73
52% 83-78
50% 81-82
TTL
60% 93-62-6
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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