ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
77-85 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
69-93 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 6.68 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Alex Lange | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.68
ERA
Ldr 3.97
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
50%
ROYALS
50%
CARDINALS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
STL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.718
167
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+165.0% more
Kansas City: 2.1
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+78.6% more
Kansas City: 23.1
vs
St. Louis: 12.9
Walks (L5)
+71.8% more
Kansas City: 3.7
vs
St. Louis: 2.2
Hits (L5)
+32.3% more
Kansas City: 12.6
vs
St. Louis: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.0
5
KC Score
6.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
12.6 / 9.6
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 7.2
1.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
23.1 / 12.9
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.2
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
STL
KC
STL
ML
55%
89-72
53%
85-74
56%
90-70
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
58%
93-67
53%
85-76
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-70-7
50%
76-75-10
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