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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

75-87  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jun 19 • 3:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Ferguson

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Ferguson None-None 1.64 -- 1.2 --
David Bednar None-None 3.52 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.64 Ldr ERA 3.52
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
30%
📊
YANKEES
70%
REDS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CINCINNATI
6
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 CIN @ NYY 4 - 1
Jun 20, 2026 CIN @ NYY 10 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 CIN @ NYY 0 - 5
Jun 25, 2025 NYY @ CIN 7 - 1
Jun 24, 2025 NYY @ CIN 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.699
OPS
▲ 1.041
213 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +119.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5) +57.2% more
New York: 9.9 vs Cincinnati: 6.3
Home Runs (L5) +53.3% more
New York: 2.1 vs Cincinnati: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +50.9% more
New York: 18.6 vs Cincinnati: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.0 0
NYY Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 6.3 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 7.6 17.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.6 / 12.4 15.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.3 / 4.4 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CIN
NYY
CIN
ML
47% 76-85
55% 88-71
52% 85-77
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 95-66
54% 86-73
53% 86-76
50% 80-80
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 81-73-5
53% 82-72-7
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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