Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Tigers CHW @ DET

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

84-78  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 19 • 2:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

76-86  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Chris Murphy
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Murphy

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Murphy None-None 6.00 -- 1.0 1
Kenley Jansen None-None 4.24 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.00 ERA Ldr 4.24
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
60%
📊
TIGERS
40%
WHITE SOX --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

69.1%

Tigers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

18.4%

DET By 1-2 runs

13.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CHICAGO
2
DETROIT
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 8
Sep 19, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 3
Sep 18, 2026 DET @ CHW 11 - 8
Sep 17, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 CHW @ DET 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Detroit DET
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.826 ▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +53.0% more
Chicago: 0.9 vs Detroit: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +26.3% more
Chicago: 9.0 vs Detroit: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +25.7% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Detroit: 4.5
Hits (L5) +15.7% more
Chicago: 7.1 vs Detroit: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 4.0 3
DET Score 2.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 7.1 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 9.0 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 14.3 13.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CHW
DET
CHW
ML
54% 86-73
49% 81-86
54% 87-73
56% 94-73
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 99-68
57% 91-69
56% 93-74
TTL
46% 69-81-9
58% 96-69-2
46% 69-81-10
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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