TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
79-83 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
89-73 | Home
16
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Myles Straw
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Hollowell
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
| Gavin Hollowell | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
55%
CUBS
45%
BLUE JAYS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
TOR @ CHC
8 - 6
Jun 19, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 16
Aug 14, 2025
CHC @ TOR
1 - 2
Aug 13, 2025
CHC @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.692
▲
OPS
.374
152
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.5% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+31.8%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.8% more
Toronto: 7.7
vs
Chicago: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.0
2
CHC Score
5.0
16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.8
18.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 7.7
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
17.2 / 16.0
25.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.6
0.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TOR
CHC
TOR
ML
58%
93-68
46%
74-87
51%
82-79
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
90-71
47%
75-85-1
49%
79-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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