Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolverines @ Wildcats MICH @ ARIZ

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

37-3  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 5:19 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

36-3  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
45%
📊
WILDCATS
55%
WOLVERINES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Michigan)
WolverinesMICH (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

72.6%

Wildcats Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MICH By 1-7 points

26.8%

MICH By 8-14 points

24.3%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

16.9%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
80
MICHIGAN
74
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
MICHIGAN
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 MICH @ ARIZ 91 - 73
Nov 21, 2021 MICH @ ARIZ 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.8% more
Michigan: 7.6 vs Arizona: 3.4
Assists (L5) +25.8% more
Michigan: 19.8 vs Arizona: 14.7
Steals (L5) +12.6% more
Michigan: 4.4 vs Arizona: 3.8
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Michigan: 52.6% vs Arizona: 50.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 80.0 91
ARIZ Score 74.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.9 / 41.3 35.0 / 44.0
Assists 14.7 / 19.8 5.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.4 / 7.6 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 52.6 37.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 71.0 68.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 40.9 44.0 / 40.0
Steals 3.8 / 4.4 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 9.8 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
ARIZ
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
MICH
ARIZ
MICH
ML
67% 26-13
78% 31-9
68% 23-11
63% 24-14
ATS
74% 29-10
78% 31-9
68% 23-11
63% 24-14
TTL
56% 22-17
57% 23-17
100% 34-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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