Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Bluejays WVU @ CREI

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

21-14  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 12:14 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

CREIGHTON

BLUEJAYSCREI

16-18  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
50%
📊
BLUEJAYS
50%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BLUEJAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CREIGHTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Creighton)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 BluejaysCREI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

15.9%

Bluejays Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CREI -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CREI)

WVU By 1-7 points

10.7%

WVU By 8-14 points

3.3%

CREI By 1-7 points

23.0%

CREI By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
WEST VIRGINIA
74
CREIGHTON
Simulated Score
WEST VIRGINIA
CREIGHTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bluejays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bluejays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 WVU @ CREI 87 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +53.8% more
Creighton: 15.2 vs West Virginia: 9.9
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Creighton: 37.7 vs West Virginia: 34.1
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Creighton: 82.2% vs West Virginia: 72.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Creighton: 31.0% vs West Virginia: 22.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 64.0 87
CREI Score 74.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 22.5 24.0 / 40.0
Assists 15.2 / 9.9 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 42.7 43.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 82.2 / 72.9 78.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 34.1 29.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.7 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.3 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
CREI
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
CREI
11-22-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
CREI
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CREI
WVU
CREI
WVU
ML
52% 17-16
63% 22-13
70% 21-9
76% 26-8
ATS
58% 19-14
60% 21-14
70% 21-9
76% 26-8
TTL
52% 17-16
40% 14-21
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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