Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Hurricane @ Lobos TLSA @ UNM

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

30-8  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 3:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

26-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
65%
📊
LOBOS
35%
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Mexico)
Golden HurricaneTLSA (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Hurricane Cover

34.5%

Lobos Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

TLSA By 1-7 points

20.1%

TLSA By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNM By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNM By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
TULSA
85
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
TULSA
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 TLSA @ UNM 74 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.6% more
New Mexico: 3.1 vs Tulsa: 1.9
Steals (L5) +25.7% more
New Mexico: 8.5 vs Tulsa: 6.7
Assists (L5) +17.6% more
New Mexico: 16.4 vs Tulsa: 14.0
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
New Mexico: 47.3% vs Tulsa: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 81.0 74
UNM Score 85.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 36.9 21.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.4 / 14.0 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.1 / 1.9 0.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 40.7 35.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 76.0 78.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 42.5 37.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.5 / 6.7 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 11.6 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
UNM
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
TLSA
UNM
TLSA
ML
57% 21-16
66% 25-13
74% 25-9
64% 23-13
ATS
57% 21-16
74% 28-10
74% 25-9
64% 23-13
TTL
41% 15-22
58% 22-16
100% 34-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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