Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Golden Gophers BAY @ MINN

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

17-17  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 7:15 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

15-18  |  Home

48
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
40%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
60%
BEARS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Baylor)
BearsBAY (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

91.9%

Golden Gophers Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BAY -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BAY By 1-7 points

16.9%

BAY By 8-14 points

26.2%

MINN By 1-7 points

5.8%

MINN By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
87
BAYLOR
73
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
BAYLOR
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 BAY @ MINN 67 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.1% more
Baylor: 7.5 vs Minnesota: 5.5
Rebounding (L5) +23.6% more
Baylor: 32.9 vs Minnesota: 25.1
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Baylor: 78.3% vs Minnesota: 73.9%
Blocks (L5) +42.5% more
Minnesota: 2.3 vs Baylor: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 87.0 67
MINN Score 73.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 32.5 13.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.7 / 15.9 6.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.3 / 1.6 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 48.2 39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 78.3 47.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 25.1 / 32.9 29.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.5 / 7.5 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.2 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
MINN
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
BAY
MINN
BAY
ML
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
53% 17-15
ATS
55% 18-15
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
53% 17-15
TTL
52% 17-16
45% 15-18
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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