Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Boilermakers @ Wildcats PUR @ ARIZ

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

30-9  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 4:59 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

36-3  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
40%
📊
WILDCATS
60%
BOILERMAKERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
BoilermakersPUR (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boilermakers Cover

38.2%

Wildcats Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

PUR By 1-7 points

21.6%

PUR By 8-14 points

10.7%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

27.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
83
PURDUE
86
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
PURDUE
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 PUR @ ARIZ 64 - 79
Dec 16, 2023 ARIZ @ PUR 84 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +82.7% more
Arizona: 4.7 vs Purdue: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +39.0% more
Arizona: 10.8 vs Purdue: 7.7
Rebounding (L5) +27.1% more
Arizona: 40.8 vs Purdue: 32.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
Arizona: 49.4% vs Purdue: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 83.0 64
ARIZ Score 86.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 49.4 / 38.0 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.5 / 17.5 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.7 / 2.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.5 / 51.7 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 78.1 91.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 32.1 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 3.2 / 4.9 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 7.7 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
PUR
ARIZ
PUR
ML
67% 26-13
67% 26-13
68% 23-11
66% 25-13
ATS
74% 29-10
64% 25-14
68% 23-11
66% 25-13
TTL
56% 22-17
51% 20-19
100% 34-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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