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TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

25-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 6:35 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

29-8  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
50%
📊
CYCLONES
50%
VOLUNTEERS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Iowa State)
VolunteersTENN (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Volunteers Cover

21.2%

Cyclones Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

TENN By 1-7 points

13.7%

TENN By 8-14 points

4.8%

ISU By 1-7 points

25.3%

ISU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
TENNESSEE
77
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
TENNESSEE
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cyclones Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cyclones (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 TENN @ ISU 76 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +87.3% more
Iowa State: 10.1 vs Tennessee: 5.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Iowa State: 38.4% vs Tennessee: 36.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Iowa State: 48.1% vs Tennessee: 46.3%
Blocks (L5) +55.3% more
Tennessee: 4.3 vs Iowa State: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 69.0 76
ISU Score 77.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 36.0 22.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.6 / 17.3 16.0 / 22.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.3 0.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 46.3 39.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 70.6 60.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 40.9 22.0 / 43.0
Steals 10.1 / 5.4 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.6 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
TENN
ISU
TENN
ML
57% 21-16
46% 17-20
76% 26-8
64% 21-12
ATS
62% 23-14
54% 20-17
76% 26-8
64% 21-12
TTL
54% 20-17
76% 28-9
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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