Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Huskies MSU @ CONN

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

27-8  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 5:55 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

UCONN

HUSKIESCONN

34-6  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
50%
📊
HUSKIES
50%
SPARTANS --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UConn)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 HuskiesCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

21.2%

Huskies Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CONN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

MSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

MSU By 8-14 points

4.8%

CONN By 1-7 points

25.3%

CONN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
MICHIGAN STATE
81
UCONN
Simulated Score
MICHIGAN STATE
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Huskies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Huskies (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 MSU @ CONN 63 - 67
Nov 25, 2021 CONN @ MSU 60 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +58.0% more
UConn: 6.5 vs Michigan State: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +8.2% more
UConn: 13.3 vs Michigan State: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
UConn: 81.3% vs Michigan State: 79.7%
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
Michigan State: 21.7 vs UConn: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 73.0 63
CONN Score 81.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.3 / 42.8 43.0 / 25.0
Assists 17.5 / 21.7 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.4 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 50.0 46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 79.7 63.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 36.1 30.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.5 / 4.1 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 12.3 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
CONN Advantage
34-6-0 (85.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
CONN
18-22-0 (45.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
MSU
CONN
MSU
ML
76% 29-9
71% 25-10
66% 23-12
61% 20-13
ATS
74% 28-10
71% 25-10
66% 23-12
61% 20-13
TTL
50% 19-19
49% 17-18
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day, 1 hour ago
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 7 hours ago
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 13 hours ago
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
yahoo 5 days, 20 hours ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago