Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Razorbacks @ Wildcats ARK @ ARIZ

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

28-9  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Mar 26 • 6:06 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

36-3  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
45%
📊
WILDCATS
55%
RAZORBACKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
RazorbacksARK (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Razorbacks Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARK By 1-7 points

24.3%

ARK By 8-14 points

13.7%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
78
ARKANSAS
79
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
ARKANSAS
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 ARK @ ARIZ 88 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
Arizona: 46.2 vs Arkansas: 38.2
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Arizona: 10.1 vs Arkansas: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +8.1% more
Arizona: 5.5 vs Arkansas: 5.1
Steals (L5) +54.7% more
Arkansas: 7.4 vs Arizona: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 78.0 88
ARIZ Score 79.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.5 / 43.7 63.0 / 22.0
Assists 12.3 / 19.3 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.5 / 5.1 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 50.8 64.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 77.5 77.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 46.2 / 38.2 30.0 / 28.0
Steals 3.3 / 7.4 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 8.6 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
ARIZ
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
ARK
ARIZ
ARK
ML
67% 26-13
68% 25-12
68% 23-11
81% 25-6
ATS
74% 29-10
70% 26-11
68% 23-11
81% 25-6
TTL
56% 22-17
57% 21-16
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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