LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
100-62 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Wrobleski
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Wrobleski | None-None | 4.33 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 1.81 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.33
ERA
Ldr 1.81
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
50%
PADRES
50%
DODGERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
LAD By 1-2 runs
18.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
14.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.57
LOS ANGELES
San Diego
5.4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
SD @ LAD
4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
SD @ LAD
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
SD @ LAD
0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026
SD @ LAD
5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
SD @ LAD
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.762
OPS
▲
.925
204
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+44.5% more
Los Angeles: 1.4
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+72.7% more
San Diego: 3.4
vs
Los Angeles: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.3% more
San Diego: 9.0
vs
Los Angeles: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.6
1
SD Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.7
3.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.5
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 13.5
4.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.4 / 1.9
0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51%
85-83
56%
92-73
51%
85-82
48%
79-87
ATS
54%
91-77
59%
98-67
55%
92-75
43%
72-94
TTL
51%
82-80-6
48%
77-82-6
54%
86-74-6
44%
70-90-6
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