CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
75-87 | Road
1
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-76 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ildemaro Vargas
#6 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 2.62 | -- | 4.0 | 6 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.62
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
6
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
53%
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
REDS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
12.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
6.51
CINCINNATI
Arizona
4.01
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.4% more
Cincinnati: 10.3
vs
Arizona: 7.0
Home Runs (Season)
+22.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Walks (L5)
+16.8% more
Cincinnati: 2.9
vs
Arizona: 2.4
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6
vs
Arizona: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
6.5
1
ARI Score
4.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.0
14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.4
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 10.3
6.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 12.6
28.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.9
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CIN
ARI
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
81-73-5
49%
73-77-9
54%
83-72-5
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