NEW YORK
METSNYM
74-88 | Road
9
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
94-68 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 3.28 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.28
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
58%
BRAVES
42%
METS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.1%
NYM By 3-4 runs
14.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.36
NEW YORK
Atlanta
4.89
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+31.5% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Atlanta: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+29.2% more
New York: 21.9
vs
Atlanta: 15.5
Hits (L5)
+26.5% more
New York: 13.1
vs
Atlanta: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.4
9
ATL Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 13.1
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.6
0.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.3
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 21.9
6.0 / 29.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.3
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
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