COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
58-104 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
82-80 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 5.31 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 6.10 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.31 Ldr
ERA
6.10
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
35%
PIRATES
65%
ROCKIES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
4.52
COLORADO
Pittsburgh
4.09
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Pittsburgh
7
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockies
Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
PIT @ COL
8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026
PIT @ COL
1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026
PIT @ COL
3 - 4
May 14, 2026
COL @ PIT
2 - 7
May 13, 2026
COL @ PIT
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.739
▲
OPS
.734
180
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+41.4% more
Colorado: 3.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.1
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Colorado: 0.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.3%
Colorado: 41.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
OPS (Season)
+0.5%
Colorado: 73.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.5
1
PIT Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.0
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.2
13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 11.7
21.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.5
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
COL
PIT
COL
ML
52%
82-77
60%
97-64
52%
85-78
55%
88-73
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-64
50%
81-82
52%
83-78
TTL
47%
72-81-6
60%
93-62-6
50%
79-78-6
50%
77-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …