WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
77-85 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 5.51 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.89 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.51
ERA
Ldr 1.89
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
34%
PHILLIES
66%
NATIONALS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
17.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
12.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.69
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
5.16
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+130.0% more
Philadelphia: 2.2
vs
Washington: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+60.8% more
Philadelphia: 20.9
vs
Washington: 13.0
Hits (L5)
+50.7% more
Philadelphia: 12.1
vs
Washington: 8.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.7% more
Philadelphia: 11.9
vs
Washington: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.7
4
PHI Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.1 / 8.0
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.9 / 8.6
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
20.9 / 13.0
17.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.4
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
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